ATLASCrisis simulator: how would your portfolio do in 2008, 2020 or 2022?
The crisis simulator replays famous market falls on the portfolio you hold today and tells you, in dollars, how far it could fall and how long it might take to come back.
What it does
You pick a crisis and ATLAS shows the estimated value of your current holdings after the fall, which positions weigh most, and the months a recovery took in that episode. The result is a sentence you can read in two seconds, followed by a chart annotated with today, the bottom and the recovery.
The exercise is meant to answer one question before it is too late: would you hold on? Seeing "your portfolio falls to $4,800" next to your own money is more useful than hearing that markets fell 57% in 2008.
Worked example with live data
Real ATLAS numbers, prices as of Oct 26, 2026.
Illustrative case: a $10,000 portfolio equally split between AAPL, MSFT and JNJ has an average beta of 0.80. Scaling the market falls by that beta gives about $5,437 after a repeat of 2007-2009, $7,277 after a repeat of the 2020 crash and $7,960 after a repeat of 2022.
| Crisis | US market fall | Estimated portfolio |
|---|---|---|
| 2007-2009 financial crisis | -56.8% | $5,437 |
| COVID crash, Feb-Mar 2020 | -33.9% | $7,277 |
| 2022 bear market | -25.4% | $7,960 |
The company data is live; the scenario in this example (amounts, weights or sizes) is an illustration, not a recommendation.
How ATLAS calculates it
ATLAS uses a table of crises with the fall by sector, the months to reach the bottom and the months to recover, and scales each of your positions by its sensitivity to the market (beta) and its sector. For 2022, which is recent, it also uses each stock's real fall. The history of the S&P 500 draws the path, and positions without a price are left out and marked.
The simplest version of the idea is beta times the market fall, and that is the approximation used in the live example below: the S&P 500 fell about 57% from October 2007 to March 2009, 34% from February to March 2020 and 25% from January to October 2022.
Limits you should know
Every crisis is different, and history does not repeat exactly. A beta estimated in calm times understates the loss of stocks that fall harder than the market. Earlier crises like the dot-com bust show only the outcome.
Where it sits in the plans
The Free plan lets you run one crisis. Starter and above unlock all of them.
Run it on your own numbers
Create an account to use this tool with your stocks, your amounts and your horizon.
Get started →Plans from €3.99 a month.
Frequently asked questions
How would my portfolio have done in 2008?
It depends on what you hold. A portfolio with a beta of 1 would have fallen close to the market's 57%; defensive sectors fell less and financials more. The simulator calculates it on your actual holdings.
What is a portfolio stress test?
It is a test that applies a severe but plausible scenario, such as a past crash, to your holdings to see the potential loss before it happens.
How long did it take to recover from 2008 and 2020?
The 2020 crash recovered within months, while the 2007-2009 fall took years. The simulator shows the recovery time for each crisis.
Can I protect my portfolio after seeing the result?
The tool walks you from the crisis, to what you would lose, to ways of reducing it, such as diversifying. What suits you depends on your goals.
Related tools
- Portfolio simulatorA portfolio simulator shows the range of values your holdings could reach, not a single forecast. In ATLAS you enter any stocks and quantities and simulate horizons from one day to 20 years.
- Recovery probabilityIf you bought above today's price, ATLAS estimates how likely the stock is to get back to your purchase price within a given time, and how long that usually takes.
- Macro by countryATLAS connects macro indicators and reference assets such as the S&P 500, the dollar and oil to stocks, and lets you simulate a shock to see how much each one tends to move.
Stocks used in this example
Open any of them to see the full public page, with fair value, odds and a one-year chart:
Not investment advice. ATLAS estimates come from statistical models and public data; they can be wrong and past results do not predict future ones. Disclaimer