ATLASWill my stock recover? The chance it returns to your buy price
If you bought above today's price, ATLAS estimates how likely the stock is to get back to your purchase price within a given time, and how long that usually takes.
What it does
Being underwater is stressful, and the question "will it come back?" rarely has a clean answer. This tool turns it into two numbers per horizon: the chance the price touches your buy price at some point, and the chance it is above it on that date.
The gap between those numbers matters. Touching the level once is much more likely than staying above it, so a recovery that happens in month eight can fade by month twelve.
Worked example with live data
Real ATLAS numbers, prices as of Oct 26, 2026.
Illustrative case: suppose you bought AAPL at $433.58, 25% above today's $346.86, so you need a gain of 25%. The model gives a 35% chance that the price touches your buy price within 12 months, but only 20% that it is above it on that date. Within 36 months the chance of touching it rises to 67%.
| Horizon | Chance of reaching your buy price at some point | Chance of being above it on that date |
|---|---|---|
| After 3 months | 4% | 2% |
| After 6 months | 16% | 9% |
| After 1 year(s) | 35% | 20% |
| After 2 year(s) | 56% | 33% |
| After 3 year(s) | 67% | 41% |
The company data is live; the scenario in this example (amounts, weights or sizes) is an illustration, not a recommendation.
How ATLAS calculates it
ATLAS treats the stock as a random walk with the long-run drift (about 7% a year) and its blended volatility. The chance of touching a higher level comes from the first-passage formula for geometric Brownian motion, which combines the distance to the level, the drift and the volatility over the time left. The chance of finishing above it comes from the same curve's distribution at that date.
Two forces decide the result: the required gain and the stock's volatility. A deep hole in a volatile stock can be easier to escape than a shallow one in a calm stock, because a volatile stock reaches far levels more often, in both directions.
Limits you should know
The model ignores why the stock fell. If the business has permanently deteriorated, its drift is not the market's and the true chance is lower. It also assumes volatility stays near its estimate.
Where it sits in the plans
Recovery estimates come with stock analysis: the Free plan covers the 200 largest US companies and funds, Starter and above cover all companies.
Run it on your own numbers
Create an account to use this tool with your stocks, your amounts and your horizon.
Get started →Plans from €3.99 a month.
Frequently asked questions
Will my stock recover?
Nobody can promise it. A model can estimate the chance based on the size of the gap, the stock's volatility and the time you can wait. ATLAS gives that estimate for 3 months to 3 years.
How long does it take a stock to recover from a drop?
It depends on the size of the drop and the stock's volatility. A 20% drop usually needs far more time than a 10% drop, and the time is uncertain; ATLAS shows probabilities by horizon instead of one date.
Should I sell a stock that is down?
The tool does not answer that. Past losses are sunk; the useful question is whether you would buy the stock today at this price, which is a different decision from whether it will get back to your old price.
Why is "touching" more likely than "being above" my buy price?
Because a stock can cross a level and then fall back. Touching counts any moment in the period; being above counts only the final date.
Related tools
- Stock probabilityFor any stock, ATLAS estimates the probability that it closes higher in 21 trading sessions (about one month) and the range where it should land. Most answers sit close to a coin flip, and that is the honest result.
- Monte Carlo simulationA Monte Carlo simulation runs thousands of random but realistic price paths and reads the outcomes as a distribution, so you see how wide the possibilities are instead of one guess.
- Price alertsATLAS price alerts tell you when something changes in your stocks, and the probability of touching a price level helps you choose levels that will actually fire.
Stocks used in this example
Open any of them to see the full public page, with fair value, odds and a one-year chart:
Not investment advice. ATLAS estimates come from statistical models and public data; they can be wrong and past results do not predict future ones. Disclaimer