ATLASATLAS fair value
ZAR 123.24
Below fair value · 58% discount
Range: ZAR 71–ZAR 203Fair valuePrice
SPAR (SPP.JSE)
SPAR share price today, ATLAS forecast and fair value
Consumer Defensive · Food Distribution · Johannesburg Stock Exchange · South Africa
ZAR 51.41▲ +6.62%
Prices as of Oct 27, 2026 · ZAR
Chance of rising in 1 month
49%
that it ends higher than today in 21 sessions
0%coin flip 50%100%
This is just the summary. See everything on SPAR in ATLAS
ATLAS's own quantitative analysis, all in one place.
- Simulation and expected rangeThousands of simulated scenarios: how far the price could rise or fall.
- Officers and shareholdersWho runs the company and which funds hold its shares.
- Customer and supplier mapWho it does business with, from its own filings.
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- Valuation and financialsFair value step by step, quarterly accounts and upcoming events.
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On SPAR
- Simulation and expected rangeThousands of simulated scenarios: how far the price could rise or fall.
- Officers and shareholdersWho runs the company and which funds hold its shares.
- Customer and supplier mapWho it does business with, from its own filings.
- Valuation and financialsFair value step by step, quarterly accounts and upcoming events.
- NewsThe latest on the company, in one place.
And for you
- ATLAS builds your portfolioAnswer a short test and get portfolios that fit you.
- AlertsWe let you know when something changes in your stocks.
- Crisis simulatorHow your portfolio would do in a crash like 2008.
- Practice risk-free$10,000 in virtual money to invest at real prices.
- Global screenerSearch US stocks and stocks from 47 countries with filters.
Plans from €3.99 a month.
ATLAS estimates SPAR's fair value at about ZAR 123.24 per share (reasonable range: ZAR 71.40 to ZAR 202.83). At ZAR 51.41, the stock trades 58% below it.
It is calculated with a discounted cash-flow model. Confidence in the estimate is low. It is an estimate, not a promise: if the company's results change, so does its fair value.
ATLAS's model gives SPAR a 49% chance of finishing higher a month from now (21 trading sessions) than today: close to a coin flip.
In half of the simulated outcomes the price ends between ZAR 47.42 and ZAR 55.44; in 9 out of 10, between ZAR 41.28 and ZAR 63.67. Estimated annual volatility is 49%.
Price, last 12 months (weekly close)
Key numbers
- Market cap
- ZAR 9.4B
- Market cap (USD)
- $566M
- P/E ratio
- 27.0
- 52-week high
- ZAR 111.82
- 52-week low
- ZAR 37.26
- Revenue (12 months)
- ZAR 134B
- Gross margin
- 10.7%
- Operating margin
- 1.1%
- Net margin
- -0.3%
- Beta
- -0.02
What this means
These are two different questions: fair value looks at the business (what it is worth given what it earns) and the odds look at the price over the next month. SPAR sits below fair value and its odds of rising over a month are close to a coin flip. An expensive stock can keep climbing and a cheap one can keep falling, which is why ATLAS shows the two readings separately.
Over the last 52 weeks SPP.JSE has traded between ZAR 37.26 and ZAR 111.82. Today it is 54.0% below that high and 38% above its low.
On the business: net margin is 0.3%; it trades at 27.0 times earnings.
Its beta is -0.02: it tends to move less than the market.
About the company
The SPAR Group Ltd engages in the wholesale and distribution of goods and services to grocery stores and other group retail outlets in South Africa and internationally.
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Comparable companies
Other companies in the same line of business:
Frequently asked questions
What is SPAR (SPP.JSE) fair value?
About ZAR 123.24 per share according to ATLAS (reasonable range: ZAR 71.40 to ZAR 202.83). With the stock at ZAR 51.41, it is 58% below it.
What is the chance SPP.JSE goes up next month?
49%: close to a coin flip. In half of the simulated outcomes, SPP.JSE ends the month between ZAR 47.42 and ZAR 55.44.
How big is SPAR and what is its P/E ratio?
SPAR's market capitalization is ZAR 9.4B. Its price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 27.0: you pay ZAR 27.0 for each ZAR 1.00 of yearly earnings.
How volatile is SPP.JSE?
ATLAS estimates annual volatility at 49%. In a typical month, half of the outcomes end between ZAR 47.42 and ZAR 55.44.
Not investment advice. ATLAS estimates are produced by statistical models from public data; they can be wrong and past performance does not predict future results. Consider your own situation before investing. Disclaimer