ATLASATLAS fair value
A$101.48
Above fair value · 48% premium
Range: A$69–A$149Fair valuePrice
Rio Tinto (RIO.AU)
Rio Tinto share price today, ATLAS forecast and fair value
Basic Materials · Other Industrial Metals & Mining · Australian Securities Exchange · Australia
A$150.32▲ +2.53%
Prices as of Oct 27, 2026 · AUD
Chance of rising in 1 month
52%
that it ends higher than today in 21 sessions
0%coin flip 50%100%
This is just the summary. See everything on Rio Tinto in ATLAS
ATLAS's own quantitative analysis, all in one place.
- Simulation and expected rangeThousands of simulated scenarios: how far the price could rise or fall.
- Officers and shareholdersWho runs the company and which funds hold its shares.
- Customer and supplier mapWho it does business with, from its own filings.
- ATLAS builds your portfolioAnswer a short test and get portfolios that fit you.
- AlertsWe let you know when something changes in your stocks.
See everything included
- Valuation and financialsFair value step by step, quarterly accounts and upcoming events.
- NewsThe latest on the company, in one place.
- Crisis simulatorHow your portfolio would do in a crash like 2008.
- Practice risk-free$10,000 in virtual money to invest at real prices.
- Global screenerSearch US stocks and stocks from 47 countries with filters.
On Rio Tinto
- Simulation and expected rangeThousands of simulated scenarios: how far the price could rise or fall.
- Officers and shareholdersWho runs the company and which funds hold its shares.
- Customer and supplier mapWho it does business with, from its own filings.
- Valuation and financialsFair value step by step, quarterly accounts and upcoming events.
- NewsThe latest on the company, in one place.
And for you
- ATLAS builds your portfolioAnswer a short test and get portfolios that fit you.
- AlertsWe let you know when something changes in your stocks.
- Crisis simulatorHow your portfolio would do in a crash like 2008.
- Practice risk-free$10,000 in virtual money to invest at real prices.
- Global screenerSearch US stocks and stocks from 47 countries with filters.
Plans from €3.99 a month.
ATLAS estimates Rio Tinto's fair value at about A$101.48 per share (reasonable range: A$69.08 to A$149.07). At A$150.32, the stock trades 48% above it.
It is calculated with a blend of a discounted cash-flow model and peer valuation multiples. Confidence in the estimate is medium. It is an estimate, not a promise: if the company's results change, so does its fair value.
ATLAS's model gives Rio Tinto a 52% chance of finishing higher a month from now (21 trading sessions) than today: close to a coin flip.
In half of the simulated outcomes the price ends between A$144.38 and A$157.50; in 9 out of 10, between A$133.68 and A$170.12. Estimated annual volatility is 25%.
Price, last 12 months (weekly close)
Key numbers
- P/E ratio
- 14.2
- Dividend yield
- 3.05%
- 52-week high
- A$195.84
- 52-week low
- A$125.50
- Revenue (12 months)
- A$61.8B
- Gross margin
- 29.8%
- Operating margin
- 28.1%
- Net margin
- 19.6%
- Beta
- 0.66
What this means
These are two different questions: fair value looks at the business (what it is worth given what it earns) and the odds look at the price over the next month. Rio Tinto sits above fair value and its odds of rising over a month are close to a coin flip. An expensive stock can keep climbing and a cheap one can keep falling, which is why ATLAS shows the two readings separately.
Over the last 52 weeks RIO.AU has traded between A$125.50 and A$195.84. Today it is 23.2% below that high and 20% above its low.
On the business: net margin is 19.6%; it trades at 14.2 times earnings.
Its beta is 0.66: it tends to move less than the market.
About the company
Rio Tinto Group engages in exploring, mining, and processing mineral resources worldwide. The company operates through Iron Ore; Aluminium and lithium; and Copper segments. The Iron Ore segment engages in the iron ore mining, and salt and gypsum production in Western Australia.
Want to see everything about Rio Tinto?
Get started →Plans from €3.99 a month.
Comparable companies
Other companies in the same line of business:
Frequently asked questions
What is Rio Tinto (RIO.AU) fair value?
About A$101.48 per share according to ATLAS (reasonable range: A$69.08 to A$149.07). With the stock at A$150.32, it is 48% above it.
What is the chance RIO.AU goes up next month?
52%: close to a coin flip. In half of the simulated outcomes, RIO.AU ends the month between A$144.38 and A$157.50.
How big is Rio Tinto and what is its P/E ratio?
Its price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 14.2: you pay A$14.2 for each A$1.00 of yearly earnings.
Does Rio Tinto pay a dividend?
Yes. RIO.AU's current dividend yield is 3.05% at today's price (A$150.32).
Not investment advice. ATLAS estimates are produced by statistical models from public data; they can be wrong and past performance does not predict future results. Consider your own situation before investing. Disclaimer