ATLASATLAS fair value
A$5.84
Below fair value · 45% discount
Range: A$4.73–A$7.20Fair valuePrice
Metcash (MTS.AU)
Metcash share price today, ATLAS forecast and fair value
Consumer Defensive · Food Distribution · Australian Securities Exchange · Australia
A$3.19▼ -0.31%
Prices as of Oct 26, 2026 · AUD
Chance of rising in 1 month
53%
that it ends higher than today in 21 sessions
0%coin flip 50%100%
This is just the summary. See everything on Metcash in ATLAS
ATLAS's own quantitative analysis, all in one place.
- Simulation and expected rangeThousands of simulated scenarios: how far the price could rise or fall.
- Officers and shareholdersWho runs the company and which funds hold its shares.
- Customer and supplier mapWho it does business with, from its own filings.
- ATLAS builds your portfolioAnswer a short test and get portfolios that fit you.
- AlertsWe let you know when something changes in your stocks.
See everything included
- Valuation and financialsFair value step by step, quarterly accounts and upcoming events.
- NewsThe latest on the company, in one place.
- Crisis simulatorHow your portfolio would do in a crash like 2008.
- Practice risk-free$10,000 in virtual money to invest at real prices.
- Global screenerSearch US stocks and stocks from 47 countries with filters.
On Metcash
- Simulation and expected rangeThousands of simulated scenarios: how far the price could rise or fall.
- Officers and shareholdersWho runs the company and which funds hold its shares.
- Customer and supplier mapWho it does business with, from its own filings.
- Valuation and financialsFair value step by step, quarterly accounts and upcoming events.
- NewsThe latest on the company, in one place.
And for you
- ATLAS builds your portfolioAnswer a short test and get portfolios that fit you.
- AlertsWe let you know when something changes in your stocks.
- Crisis simulatorHow your portfolio would do in a crash like 2008.
- Practice risk-free$10,000 in virtual money to invest at real prices.
- Global screenerSearch US stocks and stocks from 47 countries with filters.
Plans from €3.99 a month.
ATLAS estimates Metcash's fair value at about A$5.84 per share (reasonable range: A$4.73 to A$7.20). At A$3.19, the stock trades 45% below it.
It is calculated with a blend of a discounted cash-flow model and peer valuation multiples. Confidence in the estimate is medium. It is an estimate, not a promise: if the company's results change, so does its fair value.
ATLAS's model gives Metcash a 53% chance of finishing higher a month from now (21 trading sessions) than today: close to a coin flip.
In half of the simulated outcomes the price ends between A$3.10 and A$3.31; in 9 out of 10, between A$2.92 and A$3.52. Estimated annual volatility is 19%.
Price, last 12 months (weekly close)
Key numbers
- Market cap
- A$3.4B
- Market cap (USD)
- $2.4B
- P/E ratio
- 12.6
- Dividend yield
- 5.73%
- 52-week high
- A$3.98
- 52-week low
- A$2.63
- Revenue (12 months)
- A$17.4B
- Gross margin
- 13.4%
- Operating margin
- 2.8%
- Net margin
- 1.6%
- Beta
- 0.41
What this means
These are two different questions: fair value looks at the business (what it is worth given what it earns) and the odds look at the price over the next month. Metcash sits below fair value and its odds of rising over a month are close to a coin flip. An expensive stock can keep climbing and a cheap one can keep falling, which is why ATLAS shows the two readings separately.
Over the last 52 weeks MTS.AU has traded between A$2.63 and A$3.98. Today it is 19.9% below that high and 21% above its low.
On the business: net margin is 1.6%; it trades at 12.6 times earnings.
Its beta is 0.41: it tends to move less than the market.
About the company
Metcash Limited operates as a wholesale and distribution company in Australia. The company operates through Food, Liquor, and Hardware segments. Its Food segment distributes a range of products and services to independent supermarket, convenience retail outlets, and food service customers.
Want to see everything about Metcash?
Get started →Plans from €3.99 a month.
Comparable companies
Other companies in the same line of business:
Frequently asked questions
What is Metcash (MTS.AU) fair value?
About A$5.84 per share according to ATLAS (reasonable range: A$4.73 to A$7.20). With the stock at A$3.19, it is 45% below it.
What is the chance MTS.AU goes up next month?
53%: close to a coin flip. In half of the simulated outcomes, MTS.AU ends the month between A$3.10 and A$3.31.
How big is Metcash and what is its P/E ratio?
Metcash's market capitalization is A$3.4B. Its price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 12.6: you pay A$12.6 for each A$1.00 of yearly earnings.
Does Metcash pay a dividend?
Yes. MTS.AU's current dividend yield is 5.73% at today's price (A$3.19).
Not investment advice. ATLAS estimates are produced by statistical models from public data; they can be wrong and past performance does not predict future results. Consider your own situation before investing. Disclaimer