ATLASATLAS fair value
CA$17.41
Below fair value · 13% discount
Range: CA$16–CA$28Fair valuePrice
Headwater Exploration (HWX.TO)
Headwater Exploration stock price today, ATLAS forecast and fair value
Energy · Oil & Gas E&P · Toronto Stock Exchange · Canada
CA$15.08▼ -0.59%
Prices as of Oct 26, 2026 · CAD
Chance of rising in 1 month
51%
that it ends higher than today in 21 sessions
0%coin flip 50%100%
This is just the summary. See everything on Headwater Exploration in ATLAS
ATLAS's own quantitative analysis, all in one place.
- Simulation and expected rangeThousands of simulated scenarios: how far the price could rise or fall.
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- Customer and supplier mapWho it does business with, from its own filings.
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On Headwater Exploration
- Simulation and expected rangeThousands of simulated scenarios: how far the price could rise or fall.
- Officers and shareholdersWho runs the company and which funds hold its shares.
- Customer and supplier mapWho it does business with, from its own filings.
- Valuation and financialsFair value step by step, quarterly accounts and upcoming events.
- NewsThe latest on the company, in one place.
And for you
- ATLAS builds your portfolioAnswer a short test and get portfolios that fit you.
- AlertsWe let you know when something changes in your stocks.
- Crisis simulatorHow your portfolio would do in a crash like 2008.
- Practice risk-free$10,000 in virtual money to invest at real prices.
- Global screenerSearch US stocks and stocks from 47 countries with filters.
Plans from €3.99 a month.
ATLAS estimates Headwater Exploration's fair value at about CA$17.41 per share (reasonable range: CA$15.50 to CA$28.05). At CA$15.08, the stock trades 13% below it.
It is calculated with a blend of a discounted cash-flow model and peer valuation multiples. Confidence in the estimate is high. It is an estimate, not a promise: if the company's results change, so does its fair value.
ATLAS's model gives Headwater Exploration a 51% chance of finishing higher a month from now (21 trading sessions) than today: close to a coin flip.
In half of the simulated outcomes the price ends between CA$14.33 and CA$15.93; in 9 out of 10, between CA$13.04 and CA$17.51. Estimated annual volatility is 30%.
Price, last 12 months (weekly close)
Key numbers
- Market cap
- CA$3.4B
- Market cap (USD)
- $2.4B
- P/E ratio
- 18.4
- Dividend yield
- 3.00%
- 52-week high
- CA$15.26
- 52-week low
- CA$7.02
- Revenue (12 months)
- CA$592M
- Gross margin
- 75.4%
- Operating margin
- 58.9%
- Net margin
- 31.5%
- Beta
- 1.16
What this means
These are two different questions: fair value looks at the business (what it is worth given what it earns) and the odds look at the price over the next month. Headwater Exploration sits below fair value and its odds of rising over a month are close to a coin flip. An expensive stock can keep climbing and a cheap one can keep falling, which is why ATLAS shows the two readings separately.
Over the last 52 weeks HWX.TO has traded between CA$7.02 and CA$15.26. Today it is 1.2% below that high and 115% above its low.
On the business: net margin is 31.5%; it trades at 18.4 times earnings.
Its beta is 1.16: it tends to move more than the market, both up and down.
About the company
Headwater Exploration Inc. engages in the exploration, development, and production of petroleum and natural gas resources in Canada. It holds interest in the Marten Hills area located in Alberta; and the McCully Field area located in New Brunswick.
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Comparable companies
Other companies in the same line of business:
Frequently asked questions
What is Headwater Exploration (HWX.TO) fair value?
About CA$17.41 per share according to ATLAS (reasonable range: CA$15.50 to CA$28.05). With the stock at CA$15.08, it is 13% below it.
What is the chance HWX.TO goes up next month?
51%: close to a coin flip. In half of the simulated outcomes, HWX.TO ends the month between CA$14.33 and CA$15.93.
How big is Headwater Exploration and what is its P/E ratio?
Headwater Exploration's market capitalization is CA$3.4B. Its price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 18.4: you pay CA$18.4 for each CA$1.00 of yearly earnings.
Does Headwater Exploration pay a dividend?
Yes. HWX.TO's current dividend yield is 3.00% at today's price (CA$15.08).
Not investment advice. ATLAS estimates are produced by statistical models from public data; they can be wrong and past performance does not predict future results. Consider your own situation before investing. Disclaimer