ATLASATLAS fair value
$47.32
Above fair value · 52% premium
Range: $43–$52Fair valuePrice
Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI)
Applied Optoelectronics stock price today, ATLAS forecast and fair value
Technology · Communication Equipment · NASDAQ
$71.94▲ +6.56%
Prices as of Oct 26, 2026 · USD
Chance of rising in 1 month
44%
that it ends higher than today in 21 sessions
0%coin flip 50%100%
This is just the summary. See everything on Applied Optoelectronics in ATLAS
ATLAS's own quantitative analysis, all in one place.
- Simulation and expected rangeThousands of simulated scenarios: how far the price could rise or fall.
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On Applied Optoelectronics
- Simulation and expected rangeThousands of simulated scenarios: how far the price could rise or fall.
- Officers and shareholdersWho runs the company and which funds hold its shares.
- Customer and supplier mapWho it does business with, from its own filings.
- Valuation and financialsFair value step by step, quarterly accounts and upcoming events.
- NewsThe latest on the company, in one place.
And for you
- ATLAS builds your portfolioAnswer a short test and get portfolios that fit you.
- AlertsWe let you know when something changes in your stocks.
- Crisis simulatorHow your portfolio would do in a crash like 2008.
- Practice risk-free$10,000 in virtual money to invest at real prices.
- Global screenerSearch US stocks and stocks from 47 countries with filters.
Plans from €3.99 a month.
ATLAS estimates Applied Optoelectronics's fair value at about $47.32 per share (reasonable range: $42.58 to $52.05). At $71.94, the stock trades 52% above it.
It is calculated with valuation multiples of comparable companies. Confidence in the estimate is low. It is an estimate, not a promise: if the company's results change, so does its fair value.
ATLAS's model gives Applied Optoelectronics a 44% chance of finishing higher a month from now (21 trading sessions) than today: somewhat worse than a coin flip.
In half of the simulated outcomes the price ends between $57.27 and $83.00; in 9 out of 10, between $41.22 and $115.33. Estimated annual volatility is 109%.
Price, last 12 months (weekly close)
Key numbers
- Market cap
- $8.4B
- 52-week high
- $233.67
- 52-week low
- $18.50
- Revenue (12 months)
- $596M
- Revenue growth (YoY)
- +82.8%
- Gross margin
- 30.0%
- Operating margin
- -10.9%
- Net margin
- -8.4%
- Return on equity
- -5.4%
- Free cash flow (12 months)
- $-887M
- Beta
- 3.78
What this means
These are two different questions: fair value looks at the business (what it is worth given what it earns) and the odds look at the price over the next month. Applied Optoelectronics sits above fair value and its odds of rising over a month are somewhat worse than a coin flip. An expensive stock can keep climbing and a cheap one can keep falling, which is why ATLAS shows the two readings separately.
Over the last 52 weeks AAOI has traded between $18.50 and $233.67. Today it is 69.2% below that high and 289% above its low.
On the business: revenue grew 82.8% year over year; net margin is 8.4%.
Its beta is 3.78: it tends to move more than the market, both up and down.
About the company
Applied Optoelectronics Inc. is a communications equipment company that designs, manufactures, and sells fiber-optic networking products for data centers, cable television broadband, telecommunications, and fiber-to-the-home networks.
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Comparable companies
Other companies in the same line of business:
Frequently asked questions
What is Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) fair value?
About $47.32 per share according to ATLAS (reasonable range: $42.58 to $52.05). With the stock at $71.94, it is 52% above it.
What is the chance AAOI goes up next month?
44%: somewhat worse than a coin flip. In half of the simulated outcomes, AAOI ends the month between $57.27 and $83.00.
How big is Applied Optoelectronics and what is its P/E ratio?
Applied Optoelectronics's market capitalization is $8.4B. We do not show a P/E because it has no positive earnings to base one on.
How volatile is AAOI?
ATLAS estimates annual volatility at 109%. In a typical month, half of the outcomes end between $57.27 and $83.00.
Not investment advice. ATLAS estimates are produced by statistical models from public data; they can be wrong and past performance does not predict future results. Consider your own situation before investing. Disclaimer