ATLASATLAS fair value
HK$74.98
Above fair value · 29% premium
Range: HK$64–HK$99Fair valuePrice
Alibaba (9988.HK)
Alibaba share price today, ATLAS forecast and fair value
Consumer Cyclical · Internet Retail · Hong Kong Exchanges (HKEX) · Hong Kong SAR China
HK$97.00▼ -0.97%
Prices as of Oct 27, 2026 · HKD
Chance of rising in 1 month
49%
that it ends higher than today in 21 sessions
0%coin flip 50%100%
This is just the summary. See everything on Alibaba in ATLAS
ATLAS's own quantitative analysis, all in one place.
- Simulation and expected rangeThousands of simulated scenarios: how far the price could rise or fall.
- Officers and shareholdersWho runs the company and which funds hold its shares.
- Customer and supplier mapWho it does business with, from its own filings.
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- Valuation and financialsFair value step by step, quarterly accounts and upcoming events.
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On Alibaba
- Simulation and expected rangeThousands of simulated scenarios: how far the price could rise or fall.
- Officers and shareholdersWho runs the company and which funds hold its shares.
- Customer and supplier mapWho it does business with, from its own filings.
- Valuation and financialsFair value step by step, quarterly accounts and upcoming events.
- NewsThe latest on the company, in one place.
And for you
- ATLAS builds your portfolioAnswer a short test and get portfolios that fit you.
- AlertsWe let you know when something changes in your stocks.
- Crisis simulatorHow your portfolio would do in a crash like 2008.
- Practice risk-free$10,000 in virtual money to invest at real prices.
- Global screenerSearch US stocks and stocks from 47 countries with filters.
Plans from €3.99 a month.
ATLAS estimates Alibaba's fair value at about HK$74.98 per share (reasonable range: HK$64.26 to HK$98.77). At HK$97.00, the stock trades 29% above it.
It is calculated with a blend of a discounted cash-flow model and peer valuation multiples. Confidence in the estimate is medium. It is an estimate, not a promise: if the company's results change, so does its fair value.
ATLAS's model gives Alibaba a 49% chance of finishing higher a month from now (21 trading sessions) than today: close to a coin flip.
In half of the simulated outcomes the price ends between HK$90.00 and HK$104.19; in 9 out of 10, between HK$79.05 and HK$118.63. Estimated annual volatility is 42%.
Price, last 12 months (weekly close)
Key numbers
- Market cap
- HK$2.1T
- Market cap (USD)
- $270B
- P/E ratio
- 27.0
- Dividend yield
- 6.81%
- 52-week high
- HK$174.80
- 52-week low
- HK$88.65
- Revenue (12 months)
- HK$1.0T
- Gross margin
- 38.2%
- Operating margin
- 7.3%
- Net margin
- 7.0%
- Beta
- 0.46
What this means
These are two different questions: fair value looks at the business (what it is worth given what it earns) and the odds look at the price over the next month. Alibaba sits above fair value and its odds of rising over a month are close to a coin flip. An expensive stock can keep climbing and a cheap one can keep falling, which is why ATLAS shows the two readings separately.
Over the last 52 weeks 9988.HK has traded between HK$88.65 and HK$174.80. Today it is 44.5% below that high and 9% above its low.
On the business: net margin is 7.0%; it trades at 27.0 times earnings.
Its beta is 0.46: it tends to move less than the market.
About the company
Alibaba Group Holding Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides technology infrastructure and marketing reach to help merchants, brands, retailers, and other businesses in the People's Republic of China and internationally.
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Comparable companies
Other companies in the same line of business:
Frequently asked questions
What is Alibaba (9988.HK) fair value?
About HK$74.98 per share according to ATLAS (reasonable range: HK$64.26 to HK$98.77). With the stock at HK$97.00, it is 29% above it.
What is the chance 9988.HK goes up next month?
49%: close to a coin flip. In half of the simulated outcomes, 9988.HK ends the month between HK$90.00 and HK$104.19.
How big is Alibaba and what is its P/E ratio?
Alibaba's market capitalization is HK$2.1T. Its price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 27.0: you pay HK$27.0 for each HK$1.00 of yearly earnings.
Does Alibaba pay a dividend?
Yes. 9988.HK's current dividend yield is 6.81% at today's price (HK$97.00).
Not investment advice. ATLAS estimates are produced by statistical models from public data; they can be wrong and past performance does not predict future results. Consider your own situation before investing. Disclaimer