China Merchants Commercial Reit (1503.HK)

China Merchants Commercial Reit share price today, ATLAS forecast and fair value

Real Estate · REIT - Office · Hong Kong Exchanges (HKEX) · Hong Kong SAR China

HK$0.975▼ -0.51%

Prices as of Oct 27, 2026 · HKD

ATLAS fair value

HK$1.60

Below fair value · 39% discount

Range: HK$1.17–HK$2.20Fair valuePrice

Chance of rising in 1 month

55%

that it ends higher than today in 21 sessions

0%coin flip 50%100%

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Simulation and expected rangeThousands of simulated scenarios: how far the price could rise or fall.
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On China Merchants Commercial Reit

Simulation and expected rangeThousands of simulated scenarios: how far the price could rise or fall.
Officers and shareholdersWho runs the company and which funds hold its shares.
Customer and supplier mapWho it does business with, from its own filings.
Valuation and financialsFair value step by step, quarterly accounts and upcoming events.
NewsThe latest on the company, in one place.

And for you

ATLAS builds your portfolioAnswer a short test and get portfolios that fit you.
AlertsWe let you know when something changes in your stocks.
Crisis simulatorHow your portfolio would do in a crash like 2008.
Practice risk-free$10,000 in virtual money to invest at real prices.
Global screenerSearch US stocks and stocks from 47 countries with filters.

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ATLAS estimates China Merchants Commercial Reit's fair value at about HK$1.60 per share (reasonable range: HK$1.17 to HK$2.20). At HK$0.975, the stock trades 39% below it.

It is calculated with a blend of a discounted cash-flow model and peer valuation multiples. Confidence in the estimate is medium. It is an estimate, not a promise: if the company's results change, so does its fair value.

ATLAS's model gives China Merchants Commercial Reit a 55% chance of finishing higher a month from now (21 trading sessions) than today: close to a coin flip.

In half of the simulated outcomes the price ends between HK$0.953 and HK$1.01; in 9 out of 10, between HK$0.907 and HK$1.06. Estimated annual volatility is 14%.

Price, last 12 months (weekly close)

Key numbers

Market cap: HK$1.1B
Market cap (USD): $140M
Dividend yield: 3.57%
52-week high: HK$1.32
52-week low: HK$0.960
Revenue (12 months): CN¥399M
Gross margin: 67.6%
Operating margin: 64.7%
Net margin: -33.3%
Beta: 0.72

What this means

These are two different questions: fair value looks at the business (what it is worth given what it earns) and the odds look at the price over the next month. China Merchants Commercial Reit sits below fair value and its odds of rising over a month are close to a coin flip. An expensive stock can keep climbing and a cheap one can keep falling, which is why ATLAS shows the two readings separately.

Over the last 52 weeks 1503.HK has traded between HK$0.960 and HK$1.32. Today it is 26.1% below that high and 2% above its low.

Its beta is 0.72: it tends to move less than the market.

About the company

China Merchants Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust is a Hong Kong collective investment scheme authorized under section 104 of the Securities and Futures Ordinance. (Chapter 571 of the Laws of Hong Kong) and its units are listed on the Main Board of the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited.

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Comparable companies

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Frequently asked questions

What is China Merchants Commercial Reit (1503.HK) fair value?

About HK$1.60 per share according to ATLAS (reasonable range: HK$1.17 to HK$2.20). With the stock at HK$0.975, it is 39% below it.

What is the chance 1503.HK goes up next month?

55%: close to a coin flip. In half of the simulated outcomes, 1503.HK ends the month between HK$0.953 and HK$1.01.

How big is China Merchants Commercial Reit and what is its P/E ratio?

China Merchants Commercial Reit's market capitalization is HK$1.1B. We do not show a P/E because it has no positive earnings to base one on.

Does China Merchants Commercial Reit pay a dividend?

Yes. 1503.HK's current dividend yield is 3.57% at today's price (HK$0.975).

Not investment advice. ATLAS estimates are produced by statistical models from public data; they can be wrong and past performance does not predict future results. Consider your own situation before investing. Disclaimer