ATLASProbability of profit
Investing glossary · Models and probabilities
The model's estimate of the chance that an investment ends above where it started over a given period.
Definition
The probability of profit is the chance, according to a model, that an investment is worth more at the end of a period than at the start. For a stock over one month it is simply the share of simulated outcomes that finish above today's price.
Over short periods it hovers close to 50%, because price changes are dominated by noise; a probability of 55% or 60% is a meaningful tilt, not a certainty. It also says nothing about size: a 60% chance of a small gain with a 40% chance of a large loss can be a bad bet. It should be read together with the expected range.
Worked example
ATLAS gives Apple (AAPL), at $346.86, a 53% chance of finishing higher in 21 trading sessions. The chance of ending at least 5% higher, above $364.20, is 20%.
The probability of a larger gain is always lower than the probability of any gain; reading both shows how the odds change with the size of the move.
How ATLAS uses it
This is ATLAS's headline number on every stock page: the calibrated chance of rising over 21 trading sessions, shown against a 50% coin flip.
Related in ATLAS: Stock analysis →Browse all ATLAS tools →See it on a real stock
The example above uses these companies. Open their pages for the full numbers:
Frequently asked questions
Is a 60% probability a good bet?
It means that in 6 of 10 similar situations the stock ended higher. It is a tilt, not a promise, and the size of the possible loss still matters.
Why is the probability of profit near 50% for most stocks?
Because over a month, random noise dominates the small expected drift. Only a long horizon makes the drift clearly visible.
Related terms
Put the idea to work on your own stocks
Open any company in ATLAS to see its fair value, its odds of rising and its risk numbers side by side.
Try ATLAS →Not investment advice. ATLAS estimates are produced by statistical models from public data; they can be wrong and past performance does not predict future results. Consider your own situation before investing. Disclaimer