Every investor eventually holds something that is down, and the usual reaction is to look away or to double down. Recovery exists to replace both with a number.
You give it your buy price and it returns the probability of the stock reaching that level again within each horizon. The answer is often uncomfortable, because the arithmetic of losses is steep: down 33% needs a 50% gain, down 50% needs 100%.
The value of seeing it as a probability is that it turns an emotional question into a comparison. If a position needs a 60% gain to break even and shows a 15% chance of doing so within a year, the real question is whether another use of that money has better odds. The original purchase price is not part of that comparison, even though it feels like it should be.
This is the disposition effect made visible: investors sell winners too early and hold losers too long, because closing a losing position turns a paper loss into an admitted one. A probability on the screen does not remove the discomfort, but it does put a number next to the hope.
Use it as a checkpoint rather than a verdict. If the odds are low and the thesis has changed, that is a sell. If the odds are low but the thesis is intact and the horizon is long, that is a decision to make on purpose, not by avoidance.
Educational material. Not investment advice.