ATLASATLAS fair value
£9.24
Below fair value · 42% discount
Range: £7.10–£12Fair valuePrice
Tesco (TSCO.LSE)
Tesco share price today, ATLAS forecast and fair value
Consumer Defensive · Grocery Stores · London Stock Exchange · United Kingdom
£5.36▲ +0.37%
Prices as of Oct 27, 2026 · GBP
Chance of rising in 1 month
53%
that it ends higher than today in 21 sessions
0%coin flip 50%100%
This is just the summary. See everything on Tesco in ATLAS
ATLAS's own quantitative analysis, all in one place.
- Simulation and expected rangeThousands of simulated scenarios: how far the price could rise or fall.
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- Customer and supplier mapWho it does business with, from its own filings.
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On Tesco
- Simulation and expected rangeThousands of simulated scenarios: how far the price could rise or fall.
- Officers and shareholdersWho runs the company and which funds hold its shares.
- Customer and supplier mapWho it does business with, from its own filings.
- Valuation and financialsFair value step by step, quarterly accounts and upcoming events.
- NewsThe latest on the company, in one place.
And for you
- ATLAS builds your portfolioAnswer a short test and get portfolios that fit you.
- AlertsWe let you know when something changes in your stocks.
- Crisis simulatorHow your portfolio would do in a crash like 2008.
- Practice risk-free$10,000 in virtual money to invest at real prices.
- Global screenerSearch US stocks and stocks from 47 countries with filters.
Plans from €3.99 a month.
ATLAS estimates Tesco's fair value at about £9.24 per share (reasonable range: £7.10 to £12.02). At £5.36, the stock trades 42% below it.
It is calculated with a blend of a discounted cash-flow model and peer valuation multiples. Confidence in the estimate is medium. It is an estimate, not a promise: if the company's results change, so does its fair value.
ATLAS's model gives Tesco a 53% chance of finishing higher a month from now (21 trading sessions) than today: close to a coin flip.
In half of the simulated outcomes the price ends between £5.17 and £5.59; in 9 out of 10, between £4.84 and £5.98. Estimated annual volatility is 23%.
Price, last 12 months (weekly close)
Key numbers
- Market cap
- £33.0B
- Market cap (USD)
- $43.9B
- P/E ratio
- 17.9
- Dividend yield
- 2.75%
- 52-week high
- £5.49
- 52-week low
- £4.12
- Revenue (12 months)
- £75.0B
- Gross margin
- 7.7%
- Operating margin
- 4.7%
- Net margin
- 2.5%
- Beta
- 0.56
What this means
These are two different questions: fair value looks at the business (what it is worth given what it earns) and the odds look at the price over the next month. Tesco sits below fair value and its odds of rising over a month are close to a coin flip. An expensive stock can keep climbing and a cheap one can keep falling, which is why ATLAS shows the two readings separately.
Over the last 52 weeks TSCO.LSE has traded between £4.12 and £5.49. Today it is 2.4% below that high and 30% above its low.
On the business: net margin is 2.5%; it trades at 17.9 times earnings.
Its beta is 0.56: it tends to move less than the market.
About the company
Tesco PLC, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a grocery retailer in the United Kingdom, Republic of Ireland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Hungary. The company offers grocery products through its stores, as well as online.
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Comparable companies
Other companies in the same line of business:
Frequently asked questions
What is Tesco (TSCO.LSE) fair value?
About £9.24 per share according to ATLAS (reasonable range: £7.10 to £12.02). With the stock at £5.36, it is 42% below it.
What is the chance TSCO.LSE goes up next month?
53%: close to a coin flip. In half of the simulated outcomes, TSCO.LSE ends the month between £5.17 and £5.59.
How big is Tesco and what is its P/E ratio?
Tesco's market capitalization is £33.0B. Its price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 17.9: you pay £17.9 for each £1.00 of yearly earnings.
Does Tesco pay a dividend?
Yes. TSCO.LSE's current dividend yield is 2.75% at today's price (£5.36).
Not investment advice. ATLAS estimates are produced by statistical models from public data; they can be wrong and past performance does not predict future results. Consider your own situation before investing. Disclaimer