ATLASATLAS fair value
$9.95
Close to fair value · 7% discount
Range: $9–$11Fair valuePrice
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance (REFI)
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance stock price today, ATLAS forecast and fair value
Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage · NASDAQ
$9.30▼ -0.75%
Prices as of Oct 26, 2026 · USD
Chance of rising in 1 month
51%
that it ends higher than today in 21 sessions
0%coin flip 50%100%
This is just the summary. See everything on Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance in ATLAS
ATLAS's own quantitative analysis, all in one place.
- Simulation and expected rangeThousands of simulated scenarios: how far the price could rise or fall.
- Officers and shareholdersWho runs the company and which funds hold its shares.
- Customer and supplier mapWho it does business with, from its own filings.
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On Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance
- Simulation and expected rangeThousands of simulated scenarios: how far the price could rise or fall.
- Officers and shareholdersWho runs the company and which funds hold its shares.
- Customer and supplier mapWho it does business with, from its own filings.
- Valuation and financialsFair value step by step, quarterly accounts and upcoming events.
- NewsThe latest on the company, in one place.
And for you
- ATLAS builds your portfolioAnswer a short test and get portfolios that fit you.
- AlertsWe let you know when something changes in your stocks.
- Crisis simulatorHow your portfolio would do in a crash like 2008.
- Practice risk-free$10,000 in virtual money to invest at real prices.
- Global screenerSearch US stocks and stocks from 47 countries with filters.
Plans from €3.99 a month.
ATLAS estimates Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance's fair value at about $9.95 per share (reasonable range: $8.96 to $10.95). At $9.30, the stock trades within 8% of that figure: close to fair value.
It is calculated with valuation multiples of comparable companies. Confidence in the estimate is medium. It is an estimate, not a promise: if the company's results change, so does its fair value.
ATLAS's model gives Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance a 51% chance of finishing higher a month from now (21 trading sessions) than today: close to a coin flip.
In half of the simulated outcomes the price ends between $8.81 and $9.85; in 9 out of 10, between $7.98 and $10.87. Estimated annual volatility is 34%.
Price, last 12 months (weekly close)
Key numbers
- Market cap
- $258M
- P/E ratio
- 8.8
- Dividend yield
- 20.22%
- 52-week high
- $13.49
- 52-week low
- $8.76
- Revenue (12 months)
- $48.8M
- Revenue growth (YoY)
- +1.4%
- Earnings growth (YoY)
- -10.6%
- Return on equity
- 9.6%
- Free cash flow (12 months)
- $36.0M
- Beta
- 0.34
What this means
These are two different questions: fair value looks at the business (what it is worth given what it earns) and the odds look at the price over the next month. Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance sits close to fair value and its odds of rising over a month are close to a coin flip. An expensive stock can keep climbing and a cheap one can keep falling, which is why ATLAS shows the two readings separately.
Over the last 52 weeks REFI has traded between $8.76 and $13.49. Today it is 31.1% below that high and 6% above its low.
On the business: revenue grew 1.4% year over year; it trades at 8.8 times earnings.
Its beta is 0.34: it tends to move less than the market.
About the company
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. is a commercial mortgage real estate investment trust that specializes in originating, structuring, and investing in senior secured loans and other commercial real estate financings.
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Comparable companies
Other companies in the same line of business:
Frequently asked questions
What is Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance (REFI) fair value?
About $9.95 per share according to ATLAS (reasonable range: $8.96 to $10.95). With the stock at $9.30, it is close to that value.
What is the chance REFI goes up next month?
51%: close to a coin flip. In half of the simulated outcomes, REFI ends the month between $8.81 and $9.85.
How big is Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance and what is its P/E ratio?
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance's market capitalization is $258M. Its price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 8.8: you pay $8.8 for each $1 of yearly earnings.
Does Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance pay a dividend?
Yes. REFI's current dividend yield is 20.22% at today's price ($9.30).
Not investment advice. ATLAS estimates are produced by statistical models from public data; they can be wrong and past performance does not predict future results. Consider your own situation before investing. Disclaimer