ATLASATLAS fair value
$230.83
Close to fair value · 2% discount
Range: $208–$254Fair valuePrice
Progressive (PGR)
Progressive stock price today, ATLAS forecast and fair value
Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty · NYSE
$225.60▼ -1.59%
Prices as of Oct 27, 2026 · USD
Chance of rising in 1 month
52%
that it ends higher than today in 21 sessions
0%coin flip 50%100%
This is just the summary. See everything on Progressive in ATLAS
ATLAS's own quantitative analysis, all in one place.
- Simulation and expected rangeThousands of simulated scenarios: how far the price could rise or fall.
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- Customer and supplier mapWho it does business with, from its own filings.
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On Progressive
- Simulation and expected rangeThousands of simulated scenarios: how far the price could rise or fall.
- Officers and shareholdersWho runs the company and which funds hold its shares.
- Customer and supplier mapWho it does business with, from its own filings.
- Valuation and financialsFair value step by step, quarterly accounts and upcoming events.
- NewsThe latest on the company, in one place.
And for you
- ATLAS builds your portfolioAnswer a short test and get portfolios that fit you.
- AlertsWe let you know when something changes in your stocks.
- Crisis simulatorHow your portfolio would do in a crash like 2008.
- Practice risk-free$10,000 in virtual money to invest at real prices.
- Global screenerSearch US stocks and stocks from 47 countries with filters.
Plans from €3.99 a month.
ATLAS estimates Progressive's fair value at about $230.83 per share (reasonable range: $207.75 to $253.91). At $225.60, the stock trades within 8% of that figure: close to fair value.
It is calculated with valuation multiples of comparable companies. Confidence in the estimate is medium. It is an estimate, not a promise: if the company's results change, so does its fair value.
ATLAS's model gives Progressive a 52% chance of finishing higher a month from now (21 trading sessions) than today: close to a coin flip.
In half of the simulated outcomes the price ends between $216.10 and $236.87; in 9 out of 10, between $199.21 and $256.95. Estimated annual volatility is 27%.
Price, last 12 months (weekly close)
Key numbers
- Market cap
- $127B
- P/E ratio
- 10.9
- Dividend yield
- 6.16%
- 52-week high
- $239.38
- 52-week low
- $189.20
- Revenue (12 months)
- $91.7B
- Revenue growth (YoY)
- +16.3%
- Earnings growth (YoY)
- +33.5%
- Return on equity
- 33.2%
- Free cash flow (12 months)
- $11.3B
- Beta
- 0.00
What this means
These are two different questions: fair value looks at the business (what it is worth given what it earns) and the odds look at the price over the next month. Progressive sits close to fair value and its odds of rising over a month are close to a coin flip. An expensive stock can keep climbing and a cheap one can keep falling, which is why ATLAS shows the two readings separately.
Over the last 52 weeks PGR has traded between $189.20 and $239.38. Today it is 5.8% below that high and 19% above its low.
On the business: revenue grew 16.3% year over year; it trades at 10.9 times earnings.
Its beta is 0.00: it tends to move less than the market.
About the company
The Progressive Corporation is a U.S. property and casualty insurance company that provides personal and commercial auto insurance, as well as related specialty coverage.
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Comparable companies
Other companies in the same line of business:
Frequently asked questions
What is Progressive (PGR) fair value?
About $230.83 per share according to ATLAS (reasonable range: $207.75 to $253.91). With the stock at $225.60, it is close to that value.
What is the chance PGR goes up next month?
52%: close to a coin flip. In half of the simulated outcomes, PGR ends the month between $216.10 and $236.87.
How big is Progressive and what is its P/E ratio?
Progressive's market capitalization is $127B. Its price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 10.9: you pay $10.9 for each $1 of yearly earnings.
Does Progressive pay a dividend?
Yes. PGR's current dividend yield is 6.16% at today's price ($225.60).
Not investment advice. ATLAS estimates are produced by statistical models from public data; they can be wrong and past performance does not predict future results. Consider your own situation before investing. Disclaimer