ATLASATLAS fair value
$12.03
Close to fair value · 8% discount
Range: $5–$28Fair valuePrice
First Watch Restaurant Group (FWRG)
First Watch Restaurant Group stock price today, ATLAS forecast and fair value
Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants · NASDAQ
$11.09▲ +0.27%
Prices as of Oct 27, 2026 · USD
Chance of rising in 1 month
48%
that it ends higher than today in 21 sessions
0%coin flip 50%100%
This is just the summary. See everything on First Watch Restaurant Group in ATLAS
ATLAS's own quantitative analysis, all in one place.
- Simulation and expected rangeThousands of simulated scenarios: how far the price could rise or fall.
- Officers and shareholdersWho runs the company and which funds hold its shares.
- Customer and supplier mapWho it does business with, from its own filings.
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On First Watch Restaurant Group
- Simulation and expected rangeThousands of simulated scenarios: how far the price could rise or fall.
- Officers and shareholdersWho runs the company and which funds hold its shares.
- Customer and supplier mapWho it does business with, from its own filings.
- Valuation and financialsFair value step by step, quarterly accounts and upcoming events.
- NewsThe latest on the company, in one place.
And for you
- ATLAS builds your portfolioAnswer a short test and get portfolios that fit you.
- AlertsWe let you know when something changes in your stocks.
- Crisis simulatorHow your portfolio would do in a crash like 2008.
- Practice risk-free$10,000 in virtual money to invest at real prices.
- Global screenerSearch US stocks and stocks from 47 countries with filters.
Plans from €3.99 a month.
ATLAS estimates First Watch Restaurant Group's fair value at about $12.03 per share (reasonable range: $5.19 to $27.57). At $11.09, the stock trades within 8% of that figure: close to fair value.
It is calculated with valuation multiples of comparable companies. Confidence in the estimate is medium. It is an estimate, not a promise: if the company's results change, so does its fair value.
ATLAS's model gives First Watch Restaurant Group a 48% chance of finishing higher a month from now (21 trading sessions) than today: close to a coin flip.
In half of the simulated outcomes the price ends between $10.06 and $12.08; in 9 out of 10, between $8.55 and $14.21. Estimated annual volatility is 55%.
Price, last 12 months (weekly close)
Key numbers
- Market cap
- $652M
- P/E ratio
- 36.6
- 52-week high
- $18.77
- 52-week low
- $9.88
- Revenue (12 months)
- $1.3B
- Revenue growth (YoY)
- +20.3%
- Earnings growth (YoY)
- +3.3%
- Gross margin
- 19.2%
- Operating margin
- 2.5%
- Net margin
- 1.6%
- Return on equity
- 2.9%
- Free cash flow (12 months)
- $-42.8M
- Beta
- 1.03
What this means
These are two different questions: fair value looks at the business (what it is worth given what it earns) and the odds look at the price over the next month. First Watch Restaurant Group sits close to fair value and its odds of rising over a month are close to a coin flip. An expensive stock can keep climbing and a cheap one can keep falling, which is why ATLAS shows the two readings separately.
Over the last 52 weeks FWRG has traded between $9.88 and $18.77. Today it is 40.9% below that high and 12% above its low.
On the business: revenue grew 20.3% year over year; net margin is 1.6%; it trades at 36.6 times earnings.
Its beta is 1.03: it moves roughly in line with the market.
About the company
First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. is a daytime dining restaurant company that operates and franchises restaurants under the First Watch brand in the United States.
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Comparable companies
Other companies in the same line of business:
Frequently asked questions
What is First Watch Restaurant Group (FWRG) fair value?
About $12.03 per share according to ATLAS (reasonable range: $5.19 to $27.57). With the stock at $11.09, it is close to that value.
What is the chance FWRG goes up next month?
48%: close to a coin flip. In half of the simulated outcomes, FWRG ends the month between $10.06 and $12.08.
How big is First Watch Restaurant Group and what is its P/E ratio?
First Watch Restaurant Group's market capitalization is $652M. Its price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 36.6: you pay $36.6 for each $1 of yearly earnings.
How volatile is FWRG?
ATLAS estimates annual volatility at 55%. In a typical month, half of the outcomes end between $10.06 and $12.08.
Not investment advice. ATLAS estimates are produced by statistical models from public data; they can be wrong and past performance does not predict future results. Consider your own situation before investing. Disclaimer