ATLASATLAS fair value
$27.04
Close to fair value · 4% premium
Range: $23–$44Fair valuePrice
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)
Chipotle Mexican Grill stock price today, ATLAS forecast and fair value
Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants · NYSE
$27.98▼ -1.51%
Prices as of Oct 27, 2026 · USD
Chance of rising in 1 month
50%
that it ends higher than today in 21 sessions
0%coin flip 50%100%
This is just the summary. See everything on Chipotle Mexican Grill in ATLAS
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- Simulation and expected rangeThousands of simulated scenarios: how far the price could rise or fall.
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On Chipotle Mexican Grill
- Simulation and expected rangeThousands of simulated scenarios: how far the price could rise or fall.
- Officers and shareholdersWho runs the company and which funds hold its shares.
- Customer and supplier mapWho it does business with, from its own filings.
- Valuation and financialsFair value step by step, quarterly accounts and upcoming events.
- NewsThe latest on the company, in one place.
And for you
- ATLAS builds your portfolioAnswer a short test and get portfolios that fit you.
- AlertsWe let you know when something changes in your stocks.
- Crisis simulatorHow your portfolio would do in a crash like 2008.
- Practice risk-free$10,000 in virtual money to invest at real prices.
- Global screenerSearch US stocks and stocks from 47 countries with filters.
Plans from €3.99 a month.
ATLAS estimates Chipotle Mexican Grill's fair value at about $27.04 per share (reasonable range: $23.38 to $44.19). At $27.98, the stock trades within 8% of that figure: close to fair value.
It is calculated with a blend of a discounted cash-flow model and peer valuation multiples. Confidence in the estimate is high. It is an estimate, not a promise: if the company's results change, so does its fair value.
ATLAS's model gives Chipotle Mexican Grill a 50% chance of finishing higher a month from now (21 trading sessions) than today: close to a coin flip.
In half of the simulated outcomes the price ends between $26.11 and $29.94; in 9 out of 10, between $23.13 and $33.79. Estimated annual volatility is 41%.
Price, last 12 months (weekly close)
Key numbers
- Market cap
- $40.4B
- P/E ratio
- 28.5
- 52-week high
- $41.42
- 52-week low
- $27.31
- Revenue (12 months)
- $12.4B
- Revenue growth (YoY)
- +5.4%
- Earnings growth (YoY)
- +2.7%
- Gross margin
- 25.4%
- Operating margin
- 16.9%
- Net margin
- 12.9%
- Return on equity
- 49.6%
- Free cash flow (12 months)
- $1.1B
- Beta
- 0.94
What this means
These are two different questions: fair value looks at the business (what it is worth given what it earns) and the odds look at the price over the next month. Chipotle Mexican Grill sits close to fair value and its odds of rising over a month are close to a coin flip. An expensive stock can keep climbing and a cheap one can keep falling, which is why ATLAS shows the two readings separately.
Over the last 52 weeks CMG has traded between $27.31 and $41.42. Today it is 32.5% below that high and 2% above its low.
On the business: revenue grew 5.4% year over year; net margin is 12.9%; it trades at 28.5 times earnings.
Its beta is 0.94: it moves roughly in line with the market.
About the company
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. is a fast-casual restaurant company that operates and develops Chipotle Mexican Grill locations across the United States and select international markets.
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Comparable companies
Other companies in the same line of business:
Frequently asked questions
What is Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) fair value?
About $27.04 per share according to ATLAS (reasonable range: $23.38 to $44.19). With the stock at $27.98, it is close to that value.
What is the chance CMG goes up next month?
50%: close to a coin flip. In half of the simulated outcomes, CMG ends the month between $26.11 and $29.94.
How big is Chipotle Mexican Grill and what is its P/E ratio?
Chipotle Mexican Grill's market capitalization is $40.4B. Its price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 28.5: you pay $28.5 for each $1 of yearly earnings.
How volatile is CMG?
ATLAS estimates annual volatility at 41%. In a typical month, half of the outcomes end between $26.11 and $29.94.
Not investment advice. ATLAS estimates are produced by statistical models from public data; they can be wrong and past performance does not predict future results. Consider your own situation before investing. Disclaimer