ATLASATLAS fair value
$23.52
Below fair value · 47% discount
Range: $21–$26Fair valuePrice
American Airlines Group (AAL)
American Airlines Group stock price today, ATLAS forecast and fair value
Industrials · Airlines · NASDAQ
$12.50▲ +2.46%
Prices as of Oct 26, 2026 · USD
Chance of rising in 1 month
49%
that it ends higher than today in 21 sessions
0%coin flip 50%100%
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- Simulation and expected rangeThousands of simulated scenarios: how far the price could rise or fall.
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On American Airlines Group
- Simulation and expected rangeThousands of simulated scenarios: how far the price could rise or fall.
- Officers and shareholdersWho runs the company and which funds hold its shares.
- Customer and supplier mapWho it does business with, from its own filings.
- Valuation and financialsFair value step by step, quarterly accounts and upcoming events.
- NewsThe latest on the company, in one place.
And for you
- ATLAS builds your portfolioAnswer a short test and get portfolios that fit you.
- AlertsWe let you know when something changes in your stocks.
- Crisis simulatorHow your portfolio would do in a crash like 2008.
- Practice risk-free$10,000 in virtual money to invest at real prices.
- Global screenerSearch US stocks and stocks from 47 countries with filters.
Plans from €3.99 a month.
ATLAS estimates American Airlines Group's fair value at about $23.52 per share (reasonable range: $21.17 to $25.87). At $12.50, the stock trades 47% below it.
It is calculated with valuation multiples of comparable companies. Confidence in the estimate is low. It is an estimate, not a promise: if the company's results change, so does its fair value.
ATLAS's model gives American Airlines Group a 49% chance of finishing higher a month from now (21 trading sessions) than today: close to a coin flip.
In half of the simulated outcomes the price ends between $11.60 and $13.42; in 9 out of 10, between $10.19 and $15.28. Estimated annual volatility is 40%.
Price, last 12 months (weekly close)
Key numbers
- Market cap
- $8.1B
- 52-week high
- $18.79
- 52-week low
- $10.09
- Revenue (12 months)
- $58.3B
- Revenue growth (YoY)
- +0.8%
- Earnings growth (YoY)
- -86.3%
- Gross margin
- 19.2%
- Operating margin
- 3.0%
- Net margin
- 0.2%
- Return on equity
- -3.0%
- Free cash flow (12 months)
- $519M
- Beta
- 1.38
What this means
These are two different questions: fair value looks at the business (what it is worth given what it earns) and the odds look at the price over the next month. American Airlines Group sits below fair value and its odds of rising over a month are close to a coin flip. An expensive stock can keep climbing and a cheap one can keep falling, which is why ATLAS shows the two readings separately.
Over the last 52 weeks AAL has traded between $10.09 and $18.79. Today it is 33.5% below that high and 24% above its low.
On the business: revenue grew 0.8% year over year; net margin is 0.2%.
Its beta is 1.38: it tends to move more than the market, both up and down.
About the company
American Airlines Group Inc. is a global airline holding company that operates scheduled passenger and cargo air transportation through its principal subsidiary, American Airlines.
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Comparable companies
Other companies in the same line of business:
Frequently asked questions
What is American Airlines Group (AAL) fair value?
About $23.52 per share according to ATLAS (reasonable range: $21.17 to $25.87). With the stock at $12.50, it is 47% below it.
What is the chance AAL goes up next month?
49%: close to a coin flip. In half of the simulated outcomes, AAL ends the month between $11.60 and $13.42.
How big is American Airlines Group and what is its P/E ratio?
American Airlines Group's market capitalization is $8.1B. We do not show a P/E because it has no positive earnings to base one on.
How volatile is AAL?
ATLAS estimates annual volatility at 40%. In a typical month, half of the outcomes end between $11.60 and $13.42.
Not investment advice. ATLAS estimates are produced by statistical models from public data; they can be wrong and past performance does not predict future results. Consider your own situation before investing. Disclaimer